UDC: 330.4:314.8
https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2019-5-59
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THE ECONOMY IN PERSONNEL
N.S. Eremeeva
Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russia
е-mail: kstat@mail.osu.ru
Abstract. In the last decade, the provision of the region’s economy with personnel is the main socio-economic problem, which is primarily expressed in the inconsistency of workers, the requirements that employers impose. Currently, the state of the country’s economy depends on the situation of each individual region. Each region has its own resources, depending on its geographical location. As a result, information about the needs of the economy in personnel should take into account the specifics of the main areas of economic activity of a particular region and its structure. The lack of complete and reliable information on the needs of the regional economy in personnel indicates the impossibility of creating activities that are associated with the approval of plans for training specialists in educational institutions of vocational education. The lack of indicators in the statistical reporting to assess the needs of the region’s economy in personnel is an additional difficulty, which significantly complicates the process of forecasting changes in the needs of the region in personnel.
Recently, the need of the region for personnel can be considered as one of the characteristics of the labor market, which characterizes its state in terms of demand for labor. The interest of the state in statistical methods of assessing the need for personnel in the economy indicates that this problem is relevant and requires further study. The relevance and lack of development of this problem led to the choice of research topics. The aim of the study is the statistical analysis and forecasting of the needs of the economy of the Orenburg region in personnel using modern statistical tools.
The information base of the study was the official data of Rosstat for 2005–2018 years for the subjects of the Russian Federation.
As a result of the study, the following scientific results were achieved: the analysis of the intensity of indicators of the region’s economy needs in personnel; the structure and dynamics of the level of economic activity of the population of the Orenburg region and its categories were revealed. The first author used adaptive methods of statistical forecasting of the level of economic activity of the population, its categories and the need for workers, declared by organizations in the state institutions of the employment service of the Orenburg region.
The practical significance of the study is to use the methods of approaches to assess and predict the needs of the economy in personnel, the possibility of its use in the formation of the labor market monitoring system in order to obtain reliable information necessary to analyze the state of the need for personnel and improve the forecast.
Keywords: need of economy in personnel, labor market; economically active population, dynamics modeling, forecast.
