UDC: 330.15
https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2026-4-57


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ASSESSMENT OF THE AGGLOMERATION POTENTIAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RISKS OF THE ARCTIC AREAS OF YAKUTIA

S. M. Nikonorov1, A. I. Krivichev2, A. N. Nasonov3, I. V. Tsvetkov4
Vologda State University, Vologda, Russia
1 e-mail: nico73@mail.ru
2 e-mail: krivichev@bk.ru
3 e-mail: adn22@yandex.ru
4 e-mail: mancu@mail.ru

Abstract. This article presents a comprehensive study of agglomeration potential and associated socioeconomic risks in the Arctic regions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The authors emphasize the importance of studying the spatial distribution of economic activity and settlements in the extreme climatic conditions of the North. Factors contributing to the formation of agglomeration structures, such as transport accessibility, availability of raw materials, and demographic trends, are analyzed.

This study is based on the principle that demographic dynamics are a summary characteristic of a region’s sustainable development. The study is based on A. E. Gutnov’s «framework-fabric» territorial-communication model of territorial development. The paper describes a fractal model of the dynamics of the interaction of territorial «framework-fabric» components.

This paper constructs a phase diagram of the interaction of «framework-fabric» components for the Arctic regions of Yakutia over a 20-year timeframe. An assessment of the attractor of the Arctic regions of Yakutia in phase space was conducted. For the Arctic regions of Yakutia, the average agglomeration potential value is Davg = 1.26, which corresponds to a very high disproportion of the framework-fabric components on the component disproportion scale, and, in terms of the attractor range, corresponds to a very high disproportion of the framework-fabric components. Thus, virtually all Arctic regions of Yakutia are in a zone of high socioeconomic risks with inefficient and unstable agglomeration, which is natural given the harsh climate, high costs of mineral development, and the virtual absence of infrastructure and transport accessibility.

The obtained results are of interest to researchers working on regional economics and planning, government specialists, and organizations working in the field of Arctic development. They allow for the development of practical recommendations for managing urbanization processes and minimizing the adverse effects of agglomeration in the regions.

Key words: regional economy, regional planning, urbanization management, agglomeration potential, socio-economic risks, demographic dynamics.

Cite as: Nikonorov, S. M., Krivichev, A. I., Nasonov, A. N., Tsvetkov, I. V. (2026) [Assessment of the agglomeration potential and socio-economic development risks of the arctic areas of Yakutia]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 4, pp. 57–71. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2026-4-57.


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