UDC: 656.085
https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2024-5-64
EDN: UEAFUR

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF THE SPECIFICS OF THE RISK OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN LARGE RUSSIAN CITIES (2015–2023)

A. I. Petrov1, E. V. Likhayrova2
Industrial University of Tyumen, Tyumen, Russia
1e-mail: ArtIgPetrov@yandex.ru
2e-mail: lihajrovaev@tyuiu.ru

Abstract.In the course of practical implementation of the Road Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation, relevant specialists realize not only the unreality of achieving its goals within the established time frame, but also the declarative nature of this document and the lack of appropriate scientific and methodological tools, the use of which could help in solving the tasks set. One of the important elements of this tool could be a methodology for quantitative assessment of the risks of road traffic accidents. Another element is the results of assessing the spatio-temporal specificity of risk formation processes.

The purpose of the study, some results of which are presented in this article, is to study the dynamics of spatio-temporal features of the formation of risks of death of Russians in road accidents (for the case of large cities).

The article presents the methodology and results of assessing the risks of road traffic accidents in Russian cities with a population of Ngor = 501 ... 1000 thousand people. The specificity of the risk of road traffic accidents is considered from the position of assessing the statistical relationship between two particular components of the accident risk – «Risk of participation in an abstract road traffic accident (RTA) P RTA» (Indicator 1) and «Total consequences of an accident (Risk of death in a specific accident Cons RTA» (Indicator 2). The results of the study are characterized by scientific novelty. In particular, it was found that particular characteristics of the accident risk P RTA and Cons RTA can be considered from the position of dialectical opposition. With an increase in one of them, the other decreases, and vice versa. In fact, this is one of the examples of the implementation of the general scientific law of conservation (of matter, energy, information). In this case, the discovered effects can be interpreted from the position of the law of conservation of information. The article also presents assessments of the spatio-temporal specificity of the risks of road traffic accidents. Based on the results of the studies, a conclusion was made about the need to use fundamentally different approaches in road safety technologies in various cities of the country, taking into account the specificity of the accident risk. Further research in the area of studying the specifics of accident risks can be aimed both at expanding the number of objects of study (i.e. devoted to the study of accident risks in Russian cities with a smaller or larger population), and at studying the relationship between accident risks and the most important factors of a large complex system «Person – Car – Road – Environment» (CCRE).

Key words: road safety, road traffic accidents, specifics of road traffic accidents, risk of road traffic accidents, risk of participation in an accident, totality of consequences of an accident.

Cite as: Petrov, A. I., Likhayrova, E. V. (2024) [Spatial and temporal dynamics of the specifics of the risk of road traffic accidents in large Russian cities (2015-2023)]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 5, pp. 64–81. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2024-5-64.


References

  1. Blinkin, M. Ya., Reshetova, E. M. (2013) Bezopasnost’ dorozhnogo dvizheniya: istoriya voprosa, mezhdunarodnyj opyt, bazovye institucii [Road safety: history of the issue, international experience, basic institutions]. Moscow: Publishing House of HSE, 240 p.
  2. Evtyukov, S. S., Golov, E. V. (2019) [The choice of coefficients in determining the cost of kinetic energy for the deformation of the car]. Vestnik grazhdanskih inzhenerov [Bulletin of the civil inzhenerov]. Vol. 1(72), pp. 152–157. – https://doi.org/10.23968/1999-5571-2019-16-1-152-157. – EDN: ZCIJUT. (In Russ.).
  3. Kapskij, D. V., Pegin, P. A. (2015) [The methodology for predicting accidents using the method of conflict zones in the conflict «transit transport – pedestrian» based on traffic models at a regulated intersection]. Nauka i tekhnika [Science and technology]. Vol. 5, pp. 46–52. – EDN: UMFMTV. (In Russ.).
  4. Kapskij, D. V., Pegin, P. A. (2015) [Forecasting of accidents by the method of conflict zones at pedestrian crossings in the zone of artificial irregularities]. Mir transporta i tekhnologicheskih mashin [The world of transport and technological machines]. Vol. 1(48), pp. 111–118. – EDN: TNIJJV. (In Russ.).
  5. Kravchenko, P. A., Oleshchenko, E. M. (2018) [A systematic approach to road safety management]. Transport Rossijskoj Federacii [Transport of the Russian Federation]. Vol. 2(75), pp. 14–18. – EDN: YXNLLN. (In Russ.).
  6. Petrov, A. I. (2015) [Avtotransportnaya avarijnost` v razlichny`x stranax mira kak proizvodnaya ot trudovoj zanyatosti grazhdan] // Nauchnoe obozrenie. [Scientific Review]. Vol. 19. pp. 418–423. – EDN: VCUYJN. (In Russ.).
  7. Petrov, A. I. (2016) [Motor transport accident as an identifier of the quality of life of citizens] Ekonomicheskie i social’nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz [Economic and social change: facts, trends, forecast]. Vol. 3(45), pp. 154–172. – https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2016.3.45.9. – EDN: WCOIIP. (In Russ.).
  8. Petrov, A. I. (2022) [On the question of the simplest classification of the specific features of road traffic accidents in the largest cities of the Russian Federation (2021)] Transport: nauka, tekhnika, upravlenie. Nauchnyj informacionnyj sbornik. [Transport: science, technology, management. Scientific information collection.]. Vol. 12, pp. 43–48. – https://doi.org/10.36535/0236-1914-2022-12-7. – EDN: UVDYHP. (In Russ.).
  9. Goniewicz, K., et al. (2015) Road accident rates: strategies and programmes for improving road traffic safety, European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery, Vol. 42, No. 4. Pp. 433–438. – https://doi.org/10.1007/s00068-015-0544-6. (In Eng.).
  10. Huang, H., Abdel-Aty, M. A., Darwiche, A. L. (2010) County-level crash risk analysis in Florida: Bayesian spatial modeling, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Vol. 2148, No. 2148, Pp. 27–37. – https://doi.org/10.3141/2148-04. (In Eng.).
  11. Khanh, Le, Liu Pei, Lin Liang-Tay (2019) Determining the road traffic accident hotspots using GIS-based temporal-spatial statistical analytic techniques in Hanoi, Vietnam, Geo-spatial Information Science, 23:2, Pp. 153– 164. – https://doi.org/10.1080/10095020.2019.1683437. (In Eng.).
  12. Kolesov, V. I., Danilov O. F., Petrov A. I. (2017) Specific features of goal setting in road traffic safety, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2017, Vol. 90, р. 012059. – https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012059. (In Eng.).
  13. Petrov, A. I. (2022) Entropy Method of Road Safety Management: Case Study of the Russian Federation, Entropy, Vol. 24. Is. 2, № 177. – https://doi.org/10.3390/e24020177. – EDN: MUKKRZ. (In Eng.).
  14. Wang, C., Quddus, M., Ison, S. (2013) A spatio-temporal analysis of the impact of congestion on traffic safety on major roads in the UK. Transportmetrica A: Transport Science. Vol. 9, pp. 124–148. – https://doi.org/10.1080/18128602.2010.538871. (In Eng.).
  15. Wang, W., et al. (2019) Factors influencing traffic accident frequencies on urban roads: A spatial panel time-fixed effects error model, PLoS ONE, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. e0214539. – https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214539. (In Eng.).