Senior Lecturer, Department of Management and Computer Science in Technical Systems, Orenburg State University

The urgency of the problem under study is due to the rapid growth of the Russian stock market, an increase in the number of investors, investment capital and the increasing complexity of methods for predicting the investment attractiveness of securities.

The purpose of the study is to improve methods for predicting stock prices using the process of identifying the distribution law.

The work used the EV / EBITDA multiplier, which gives a «fair» assessment of the value of shares and its real price in the market, as well as the price difference, which means the absolute gap between the real and the «fair» price; identification of the law of distribution of price difference allows us to make an assumption about the further change in prices for shares, that is, it gives a qualitative signal about the price change in the future relative to the current state.

As a result, price differences were obtained and the laws of their distribution were identified for three issuers; analysis of the stock prices of these issuers subsequently allowed to confirm the assumption that the difference in the distribution laws is reflected in the subsequent change in the stock price, which makes it possible in principle to use this method to predict stock prices.

Article materials may be useful for investors, traders and other participants of the stock market, as well as researchers in the field of investment.

Keywords: stock market, forecasting, price differences, identification of the distribution law.

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