UDC: 33.01:005.21
https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2025-6-69


viewing

INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF A TECHNOLOGY COMPANY IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY: STRATEGIC RISK DIVERSIFICATION AND REGIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

V. S. Levin1, N. K. Borisyuk2, M. G. Lapaeva3
Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russia
1 e-mail: vslevin@mail.ru
2 e-mail: Konstantinov1947@yandex.ru
3 e-mail: mgb2141@gmail.com

Abstract. The relevance of this study is driven by increasing geopolitical instability and sanctions pressure, which require a significant adaptation of classical approaches to investment analysis of technology companies, particularly those operating in isolated economies.

The aim of this study is to provide a scientific basis for investment risk management strategies for technology companies in this new environment, based on a comprehensive analysis of Yandex’s transformation.

The methodology is based on a mixed approach integrating quantitative and qualitative analysis: an analysis of Yandex’s financial statements for 2022–2024, a strategic analysis (SWOT analysis), an assessment of the applicability of the classical CAPM model using regression analysis, and a systematic review of Russian and international scientific literature.

Key Results. Using the example of Yandex’s July 2024 restructuring, the effectiveness of a multi-level diversification strategy (segmental, geographic, and technological) for ensuring sustainable growth was demonstrated, as evidenced by record revenue (RUB 1.095 trillion, an increase 37% year-on-year) and adjusted EBITDA growth of 56%.

The limitations of the classical CAPM model under sanctions were identified. The low R² (39.79%) indicates that a significant portion of the risks are not explained by market volatility.

An expanded cost of capital valuation model was developed, incorporating premiums for geopolitical, regulatory, technological, and reputational risks.

The significant contribution of digital platforms to Russia’s regional development was identified, including reducing digital inequality, stimulating innovation, and supporting small and medium-sized businesses. The scientific novelty lies in the integration of modern portfolio theory with external instability factors and the development of an expanded methodology for assessing the cost of capital for technology companies, adapted to the conditions of sanctions restric¬tions and the specifics of the Russian market.

The practical significance lies in the formulation of strategic recommendations for technology companies on risk diversification, business model adaptation, and the use of hyperlocalization and technological sovereignty strategies.

Future research areas include a comparative analysis of the adaptation strategies of other Russian IT companies, quantitative verification of the proposed expanded CAPM model, and a long-term analysis of the regional effects of digitalization.

Key words: investment analysis, geopolitical risks, technological sovereignty, diversification, CAPM model, digital economy, regional development.

Cite as: Levin, V. S., Borisyuk, N. K., Lapaeva, M. G. (2025) [Investment analysis of a technology company in the context of geopolitical instability: strategic risk diversification and regional significance]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 6, pp. 69–83. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2025-6-69.


References

  1. Anufrieva, O. A., Valieva, V. V. (2025) [Modern methods for assessing the investment attractiveness of regions]. Ekonomicheskiye issledovaniya i razrabotki [Economic Research and Development]. Vol. (5), pp. 39–42. (In Russ.).
  2. Bolodurina, M. P., Elizareva, E. A. (2025) [Multilevel methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of small and medium-sized companies in the services sector]. Ekonomika, predprinimatelstvo i pravo [Economy, entrepreneurship and law]. Vol. 15. (1), pp. 281–302. – https://doi.org/10.18334/epp.15.1.122126. (In Russ.).
  3. Gavel, O. Yu., Kerimova, Ch. V., Muzalev, S. V. (2021) Razvitiye metodologii strategicheskogo analiza effektivnosti biznesa [Development of the methodology for strategic analysis of business efficiency]. Moscow: OOO «Publishing house «Knorus», 170 р.
  4. Gorsky, M. A., Tarasyuk, Yu. V. (2022) [Application of optimal portfolio models on the Russian stock market]. Vestnik Altaiskoi akademii ekonomiki i prava [Bulletin of the Altai Academy of Economics and Law]. Vol. (6–1), pp. 31–38. – https://doi.org/10.17513/vaael.2242. (In Russ.).
  5. Grishina, I. V., Polynev, A. O., Ugryumova, A. A. (2024) [The Impact of Economic Diversification on Labor Productivity in Russian Regions]. Regionologiya [Regionology]. Vol. 32. No. 4 (129), pp. 691–711. – https://doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.129.032.202404.691-711. (In Russ.).
  6. Dyakov, S. A., Myzina, A. I. (2025) [Influence of geopolitical risks on the structure and trends of Russia’s economic development]. Moskovskii ekonomicheskii zhurnal [Moscow Economic Journal]. Vol. 10(6), pp. 249–265. – https://doi.org/10.55186/2413046X_2025_10_6_165. (In Russ.).
  7. Zemtsov, S. P. (2025) [Digital divide and regional development in Russia in the context of artificial intelligence diffusion]. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association]. Vol. 2 (67), pp. 225–233. – https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2025_2_225-233. (In Russ.).
  8. Kozlov, D. A., Grachev, S. A. (2025) [The Role of Digitalization of the Regional Economy in Shaping the Trajectory of Sustainable Development]. Sovremennaya konkurentsiya [Journal of Modern Competition]. Vol. 19. No. 4 (106), pp. 113–129. – https://doi.org/10.37791/2687-0657-2025-19-4-113-129. (In Russ.)
  9. Konovalova, M. E., Abuzov, A. Yu. (2024) [Mathematical model for optimizing an investment portfolio taking into account risk and financial constraints in enterprise management]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya [Fundamental Research]. Vol. 1, pp. 20–24. – https://doi.org/10.17513/fr.43551. (In Russ.).
  10. Levin, V. S. (2025). [Features of discounting lease payments in the context of determining the interest rate]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 3, pp. 35–51. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2025-3-35. (In Russ.).
  11. Mukhametova, A. D. (2025) [The impact of digitalization on regional economic development]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: nauchno-prakticheskii zhurnal [Economics and Management: Scientific-Practical Journal]. Vol. 2 (182), pp. 42–45. – https://doi.org/10.34773/EU.2025.2.7. (In Russ.).
  12. Onishchenko, N. N., Patrushev, A. E. (2025) [Geopolitical risks as a factor in the formation of critical raw materials supply diversification strategies]. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika [Economics and Business: Theory and Practice]. Vol. 4(122), pp. 279–283. – https://doi.org/10.24412/2411-0450-2025-4-279-283. (In Russ.).
  13. Orlova, L. N., Sayakhetdinov, A. R. (2023). [Methods for quantitative risk assessment based on VaR: comparative analysis]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 2, pp. 63–74. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2023-2-63. (In Russ.).
  14. Rudenko, M. N. (2025) [Russia’s National Security in Geopolitical Contours]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ [Economic Security]. Vol. 8(3), pp.643–664. – https://doi.org/10.18334/ecsec.8.3.122980. (In Russ.).
  15. Silaev, N. M. (2025) [Geopolitical Risks as a Factor of Strategic Uncertainty for Russian Organizations: Approaches to Management]. Progressivnaya ekonomika [Progressive Economy]. Vol. 9, pp. 213–226. – https://doi.org/10.54861/27131211_2025_9_213. (In Russ.).
  16. Fedyunina, A. A., Simachev Yu. V. (2025) [Technological sovereignty and the development of Russian digital economy: Digital goods imports under sanctions]. Zhurnal Novoy ekonomicheskoy assotsiatsii [Journal of the New Economic Association]. Vol. 2 (67), pp. 244–254. – https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2025_2_244-254. (In Russ.).
  17. Damodaran, A. (2024) Country Risk: Determinants, Measures, and Implications. The 2024 Edition, 129 p. – http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4896539. (In Eng.).
  18. Demenchuk, V. M., Melati, I. S., Utesheva, D. D. (2025) Investment analysis of Yandex: A case of study for 2022–2024. Jurnal Maneksi (Management Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi). Vol. 14. No. 2, pp. 806–819. – https://doi.org/10.31959/jm.v14i2.3172. (In Eng.).
  19. Grant, R. M. (2021) Contemporary Strategy Analysis. 11th еdn. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 544 p. (In Eng.).
  20. Sharpe, W. F. (1963) A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis. Management Science. Vol. 9. No. 2, рр. 277–293. – https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.277. (In Eng.).
  21. Shchepeleva, M. (2024) Predicting systemic risk in the Russian financial sector with boosting techniques. Procedia Computer Science. Vol. 242, pp. 51–56. – https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2024.08.228. (In Eng.).