https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2020-6-48
ASSESSMENT OF THE INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF REGIONAL BONDS OF THE ORENBURG REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF MITIGATING MONETARY POLICY AND GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY
V. S. Levin
Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russia
e-mail: vslevin@mail.ru
Abstract. The relevance of the research is that regional bonds are not only a source of covering the region’s public debt, but also a tool for investment. Currently, the investment attractiveness of such instruments is low, since they are not liquid enough and are low-yielding. In the context of global uncertainty and monetary policy easing, regional bonds can be considered as an alternative investment tool, since they have a fairly high reliability and low investment risk.
The purpose of the research is to assess the investment attractiveness of regional bonds of the Orenburg region.
The main results are as follows. The comparative characteristics of the Moscow exchange indices on the terms and depth of correction in the securities market in the first half of 2020 are carried out. The dynamics of the exchange rate value of bonds of the Orenburg region (issue # 35003) and the index of municipal bonds are analyzed. It is shown that the bonds of the Orenburg region included in the index of municipal bonds are more stable and conservative financial instruments in comparison with other units of the considered population. The correlation between the yield, price and duration of bonds from the municipal bond index is identified and described based on correlation and regression analysis. To do this, the relationships between the yield and price of bonds were initially estimated using pair regression, and then the yield and duration of the bonds were estimated. As a result, a multi-factor model of multiple regression was built, which allows forecasting the yield of regional bonds. Other factors that are not included in the model and may have an impact on bond yields are indicated. It is shown that in comparison with budget loans, bond loans have a number of advantages: a longer-term nature of attracting funds, availability for a large number of investors, market pricing, the ability to improve the image and investment attractiveness of the Issuer with the help of a credit rating of the region, confirmed by leading rating agencies. The reliability of regional bonds of the Orenburg region was confirmed by the rating Agency Fitch Ratings on June 12, 2020 at the level of «BB+», the forecast is «Stable». It is shown that an additional incentive to purchase sub-Federal bonds by individuals can be a significant tax savings in the framework of opening and active use of an individual investment account.
Key words: regional bonds, municipal bond index, duration, yield, investment attractiveness, valuation, monetary policy, global uncertainty, government debt, rating agencies
Cite as: Levin V. S. (2020) [Assessment of the investment attractiveness of regional bonds of the Orenburg region in the context of mitigating monetary policy and global uncertainty] Intellekt. Innovatsii. Investitsii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 6, рр. 48–60. DOI: 10.25198/2077-7175-2020-6-48.
