UDC: 336.7
https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2026-2-66


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METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE CASH FLOW VOLATILITY INDEX

A. V. Larionov
Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
e-mail: larionov.av.hse@yandex.ru

Abstract. The relevance of this study is determined by the need to create a system for operational monitoring of the Russian economy to mitigate the negative impact of profound uncertainty. To ensure sustainable economic growth, the Bank of Russia must be able to identify the emergence of a crisis at an early stage and promptly apply management tools, in particular specialized refinancing instruments. The development of a system for operational monitoring of the economy can be realized using high-frequency data from the Bank of Russia Payment System, which facilitates the cashless movement of individuals and legal entities. The diversity of generated cash flows necessitates their comprehensive monitoring, which can be achieved by assessing the cash flow volatility index. The objective of the study is to develop and test a methodological approach for assessing the cash flow volatility index.

The methodological approach is being tested using data from the Sectoral Financial Flow Monitoring System, implemented using data from the Bank of Russia Payment System. The research methods were selected in accordance with the recommendations of the OECD standard «Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide». Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated to identify cash flow indicators demonstrating opposite dynamics. Subsequently, cash flow volatility indicators were standardized using industry data. The resulting standardized values were then used to calculate the geometric mean, which serves as the cash flow volatility index.

volatility, cash flows, financial flows, Bank of Russia, Bank of Russia payment system, financial stability, public administrationThe novelty of this study lies in the development of an index that allows for a comprehensive accounting of cash flows with similar directions of movement. Testing the proposed methodological approach demonstrated that the resulting index estimates exhibit dynamics similar to Russia’s GDP growth indicators. Thus, the cash flow volatility index can be used for operational monitoring of the economy. The calculated index can be integrated into the existing operational economic monitoring system, including for improving the Bank of Russia’s Sectoral Financial Flow Monitoring System. Further research should focus on examining the relationship between the cash flow volatility index and other macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, unemployment, and retail turnover.

Key words: volatility, cash flows, financial flows, Bank of Russia, Bank of Russia payment system, financial stability, public administration.

Cite as: Larionov, A. V. (2026) [Methodological approach to assessing the cash flow volatility index]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 2, pp. 66–76. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2026-2-66.


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