UDC: 336.767.017.2
https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2026-2-37


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APPROACHES TO THE FORMATION OF CRISIS-RESISTANT INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS

S. A. Dyakov 1, A. A. Mambetova 2, A. A. Chechulin 3
Kuban State Agrarian University named after I.T. Trubilin, Krasnodar, Russia
1 e-mail: docent.dyakov@mail.ru
2 e-mail: mambetova.03@icloud.com
3 e-mail: alchecase456@gmail.com

Abstract. The relevance of developing approaches to the formation of investment portfolios in the context of a complex geopolitical situation and a cooling of economic development is justified by the need for investors to protect their financial resources from potential losses. Modern portfolio theory and its statistical apparatus are unable to adequately reflect risks and returns in extreme deviations from historical trends, and often do not match the expected outcomes of mathematical models. The goal of this work is to develop approaches to the structuring of securities and projects in a portfolio that will allow investors to achieve the desired return or limit their losses to a reasonable level. In the course of the study, we used analysis, synthesis, inductive and deductive methods, the monographic method, and mathematical modeling. We have defined the ability of an investment portfolio to break even when implementing risky events as crisis-resistance, which is the object of the scientific article. Within the framework of this goal, three approaches were formed based on the use of risk-free asset yields as a “shield” from the formation of unprofitable positions. In the course of defining the boundaries of the shares of risk‒free assets in the portfolio, within the framework of each approach, the category of «safe innovations» was mathematically defined – the share of high-risk investments in unprecedented projects in the real sector of the economy or in initial public offerings (IPOs) relative to the total invested capital. The study of crisis resilience involves an assessment of the level of risk, which makes it necessary to determine the proportion of risk-free capital at which potential profits and losses are equal, which corresponds to the acceptable level. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the construction of a W-triangle – a set of various financial outcomes of an investment portfolio with selected elements, which makes it possible to visually see the change in the spread of many results with increasing crisis tolerance. The practical significance of using the W-triangle is to find subsets with «irrational risk» in which the same level of profitability with greater crisis tolerance is formed in more risky areas. In addition, this study helped to find an accurate mathematical calculation of «risk premium». The implementation of the proposed approaches to portfolio structuring largely frees investors from the need to use complex statistical models with a high level of crisis tolerance, without compromising the accuracy and reliability of the results. A study of investment portfolios of the first degree of crisis resilience in modern Russia for 2023–2025 has been conducted.

Key words: investment portfolio, crisis-resistant, break-even, risk, profitability, security.

Cite as: Dyakov, S. A., Mambetova, A. A., Chechulin, A. A. (2026) [Approaches to the formation of crisis-resistant investment portfolios]. Intellekt. Innovacii. Investicii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 2, pp. 37–51. – https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2026-2-37.


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