https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2021-2-96
ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATIC RISKS IN RELATION TO THE TRANSPORT IN-FRASTRUCTURE OF THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF RUSSIA
A. N. Yakubovich
Moscow Automobile and Highway State Technical University (MADI), Moscow, Russia
e-mail: 54081@mail.ru
I. A. Yakubovich
Moscow Automobile and Highway State Technical University (MADI), Moscow, Russia
e-mail: yakubovich_irina@mail.ru
Abstract. Theme. Infrastructure of transport systems of the permafrost zone of Russia, operated in conditions of global warming.
Objectives. To quantify the risks of disrupting the functionality of transport infrastructure facilities, taking into account the soil and natural and climatic features in the territory of their operation.
Methodology. Modeling the temperature dynamics of the soil massif, including the upper seasonal thawed layer and the lower layer of permafrost soil, identifying changes in its strength and deformation properties under the accepted scenario of climatic changes, assessing the impact of changes in the soil massif on the operational state and safety of various types of infrastructure facilities of transport systems (taking into account the appearance of additional precipitation of thawing soil and a decrease in its bearing capacity), determination of the values of predicted risks on a scale that is uniform for all types of objects.
Results. New data have been obtained on the negative consequences of climate change for the infrastructure of transport systems in the permafrost zone of Russia. Under fairly conservative assumptions about a warming of 2 degrees Celsius, the risk of functional impairment for the road profile is predicted to be from 86 to 294 points on a 1000-point scale, and climatic risks increase with an increase in the temperature of permafrost. The magnitude of the expected risks in relation to the aerodrome pavement is approximately at the same level; these two types of objects are distinguished by the greatest resistance to climatic changes. Pile foundations are subject to risk ranging from 143 to 529 points. The most vulnerable to warming are strip and columnar foundations, for which the lowest risk value obtained during modeling is 389 points, and under unfavorable conditions (high-temperature permafrost in combination with low soil moisture), the risk increases to the maximum possible value of 1000 points.
Implications. The risks of disrupting the functionality of infrastructural objects of the permafrost transport systems, predicted at warming up to 2 degrees Celsius, should be considered significant. With risks up to 400 points (road profile, airfield coverage), it is advisable to limit ourselves to monitoring the current state of the facility and, if necessary, restore its functionality. With risks from 400 to 600 points, it is recommended, and in case of risks over 600 points, it is mandatory to carry out preventive engineering and technical measures aimed at stabilizing the temperature regime of soils and preventing a sudden loss of functionality of individual elements of the transport system.
Key words: transport system, infrastructure facility, permafrost, climate change, modeling.
Cite as: Yakubovich, A. N., Yakubovich, I. A. (2021) [Assessment of climatic risks in relation to the transport infrastructure of the northern regions of Russia]. Intellekt. Innovatsii. Investitsii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 2, рр. 96–104. DOI: 10.25198/2077-7175-2021-2-96.
