GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND ADAPTATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
S. N. Orlov
Kurgan State University, Kurgan, Russia / Kurgan Branch of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia
e-mail: orlovsn@list.ru
Abstract. The purpose of the article is to develop the concept of effective regulation of the economy, adequate to the current stage of economic development. The article formulates theoretical approaches to the study of the evolution of the economy and the factors that cause the cyclical occurrence of crisis situations in the global and national economies, presents a system of connections and relationships, factors and prerequisites that caused the emergence of the global crisis in 2020. The crisis situation, the catalyst of which was the coronavirus pandemic, is developing under the influence of global prerequisites caused by the interference of three global cyclical waves: the technological cycle (N. Kondratiev, S. Glazyev), the systemic cycle of capital accumulation (D. Arrigi, T. Piketty) and the civilization wave (E. Toffler). The influence of modern global challenges on the economy, trends and prospects of national financial policy is considered. The author concludes that the key problems of the national economy: income differentiation, poverty, capital outflow and uncontrolled Central Bank inflation are interrelated. The consequences of the modern anti-inflationary policy of the Bank of Russia are analyzed and predicted.
The trends of post-crisis development of global and national economies are constructed and substantiated, the connection of the development of financial market models in various countries with the stages of the system cycle and the centers of capital accumulation is proved. Methodological, methodological and practical recommendations are proposed for the selection and justification of the activities of the national program aimed at building an effective post-crisis socio-economic mechanism in order to overcome crisis phenomena and subsequently ensure the sustainable development of the national economy and its sectors. Modern conceptual approaches to the development of a national program aimed at building an effective socio-economic mechanism to ensure the sustainable development of the national economy, regions, sectors, industries, enterprises, and improving the welfare of citizens are formulated. Bringing the vector of strategic development of the national economy in line with global development trends will allow achieving the stated goals of economic policy, increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of the national economy, national economic entities. The implementation of an adequate regulatory mechanism and the choice of the exact time range and direction of rational efforts will increase the level of well-being of the population, the stability of the economy and society, and successfully counteract modern global challenges and threats to national security.
Key words: economic evolution, global economic cycles, stages of the systemic accumulation cycle, financial and real sector, financial market models.
Acknowledgements. The article was prepared as part of the research plan of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2021–2023.
Cite as: Orlov, S. N. (2022) [Global dynamics and adaptation of the national economy]. Intellekt. Innovatsii. Investitsii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 1, pp. 33–46, https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2022-1-33.
