https://doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2021-1-54
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING FINANCIAL RISKS OF RETAIL TRADING NETWORKS
R. S. Smagin
Financial Department of the «MvideoEldorado» group, Moscow, Russia
e-mail: smagin_rs@mail.ru
T. V. Lebedeva
Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russia
e-mail: tatyana_v_lebedeva@mail.ru
Abstract. The relevance of the problem under study is due to the fact that, despite the many works devoted to the theoretical and applied aspects of risk research, the specifics of the formation of financial risks in the activities of retail trade networks have not been sufficiently studied. In particular, there is no methodology and practical recommendations for quantitative risk assessment using statistical methods that allow to identify trends and patterns in the dynamics of risk indicators, to consider external and internal risk factors, the results of which should be used as a basis for developing measures to reduce the risk of retail trade. networks. The aim of the work is to improve the methodology for assessing financial risks based on methods of statistical, economic and financial analysis. The article presents the results of a quantitative assessment of financial risks according to the approach developed and tested on the data of the retail trade network “Magnit”. For a quantitative assessment of the financial risks of a retail trade network, the authors proposed a system of five profitability indicators. The analysis of trends and patterns in the dynamics of profitability indicators, as well as factors influencing them, was carried out using one-dimensional and multidimensional data sets. Forecasts of profitability indicators are not contradictory and indicate the presence of a risk of losses, therefore, a detailed assessment of financial risks was carried out. It was revealed that the indicators of profitability of the retail trade network “Magnit” in the analyzed period had a statistically significant relationship with the indices of the physical volume of retail trade and consumer prices, as well as the number of economic entities in retail trade. The assessment of the financial condition of the organization by indicators of financial stability and a comprehensive assessment by the five-factor model of E. Altman are given. The scientific novelty of the work consists in improving the methodology for assessing financial risks based on statistical, economic and financial methods of analysis, as well as developing proposals for reducing financial risks for network trading organizations. The proposed methodology and research results are of interest to decision makers in network trade organizations, regulatory bodies at the regional and federal levels. Prospects for further research on the issues of assessing and predicting financial risks of retail chains consist in a more detailed study of external factors, in particular, legal restrictions, changes in the level and structure of consumer demand due to the pandemic that began in 2020.
Keywords: financial risks, retail trade network, quantitative assessment of financial risks, profitability, statistical methods.
Cite as: Smagin, R. S., Lebedeva, T. V. (2021) [Analysis and Forecasting of Financial Risks of Retail Trade Chains]. Intellekt. Innovatsii. Investitsii [Intellect. Innovations. Investments]. Vol. 1, рр. 54–64. DOI: 10.25198/2077-7175-2021-1-54.
