FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE FUNCTIONALITY OF THE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE CRYOLITH ZONE OF RUSSIA
A.N. Yakubovich1, I.A. Yakubovich2
Moscow Automobile and Road State Technical University (MADI), Moscow, Russia
1e-mail: 54081@mail.ru
2e-mail: yakubovich_irina@mail.ru
Abstract. Object. Transport infrastructure of the cryolithozone of Russia, the operation of which is significantly different from the climatic conditions provided for in the design and construction.
Purposes. Quantify the projected decline in the functionality of transport infrastructure in the most likely range of climate change.
Methodology.Mathematical modeling based on the laws of heat transfer in the soil and between the soil and the ambient air, in accordance with the real temperature regime. Based on the simulation results, the functionality of the U object is evaluated. For the base (unaltered) climate, U=1 is assumed; the value U=0 corresponds to the complete exhaustion of the design reserve and an unacceptably high risk of disruption of the facility's functionality.
Results. In almost all considered climatic and soil conditions, warming leads to a significant decrease in the functionality. When the base of the object is buried less than 5 m, for any ground conditions, an unacceptably large decrease in functionality is predicted, already starting with a warming of +2 C (in the climatic conditions of Yakutsk U<0,5, for Chemdalsk and the Kola Peninsula U<0,25). Upon warming to +3 C functionality U>0,5 remains to Yakutsk when the depth is not less than 7 m, for Chara, Chemdalsk and the Kola Peninsula functionality U>0,5 is not reached even at the depth of 9 m. In the conditions of Urengoy, the decrease in functionality, ceteris paribus, is projected to be 0,05-0,1 more than for Yakutsk. Wet, especially clay soils, are less (0,1-0,2) reduced functionality in warming than low humidity soils.
Summary. Transport infrastructure facilities in the cryolithozone with a depth of 5 m or more, are exposed to significant risks of reducing their functionality, which, starting from the warming of +2 C relative to the base climate, should be eliminated by appropriate engineering measures aimed at protecting the temperature regime of permafrost soils of the base. For facilities with a base depth of less than 5 m, these measures should be implemented in advance of negative climate change.
Keywords: transport infrastructure, climate change, risk modeling.
